Coronavirus Lockdown: Cambridge Model Predicts What India Needs To Contain COVID-19 Spread

As the world battles the threat of the novel coronavirus, policymakers and researchers are frantically looking for ways to predict the virus's spread and effects. So far, novel coronavirus has proven to be too fast to be chased and contained. Countries have placed restrictions on movement on people with the hope that social distancing techniques will help contain the spread of the virus. India, too has taken such measures, imposing a 21-day lockdown across the country.

However, a new mathematical model created by two Cambridge University scholars of Indian origin, predicts that the current lockdown may not be enough to contain the novel coronavirus. The proposed model, devised by Rajesh Singh and R. Adhikari from the University of Cambridge's Centre for Mathematical Sciences, argues that India's unique social contact structure may cause the virus to behave differently here than in China (where the novel coronavirus originated) and Italy (the worst affected country).

The model compares case data, age distribution and social structures of India, China and Italy and uses another popular model known as Prem et.al, which projects social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data. The Cambridge model identifies typical Indian homes as the main channel of transmission between three generations.

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