How lucky is too lucky?: The Minecraft Speedrunning Dream Controversy Explained

Buy my book Humble Pi now!
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/610964/humble-pi-by-matt-parker/
UPDATE: Harvard Book Store have totally sold out.

My talk on 4 February 2021 at Harvard Book Store:
https://www.harvard.com/event/virtual_event_matt_parker/

Here is the original accusation against Dream.
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MYw9LcLCb4&ab_channel=Geosquare
Paper: https://mcspeedrun.com/dream.pdf

And here is Dream's reply.
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iqpSrNVjYQ&ab_channel=DreamXD
Paper: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yfLURFdDhMfrvI2cFMdYM8f_M_IRoAlM/view

"Matt flips a coin 100 times."
https://youtu.be/T2Xtit17snE

"Holy Craps! How a Gambling Grandma Broke the Record"
http://content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1901663,00.html

Number of casinos in the world in 2011: 3,547
https://www.statista.com/statistics/221031/total-worldwide-casinos-by-region/

Roulette records.
https://www.roulette17.com/stories/record-reds-blacks-in-a-row/

CORRECTIONS
- At 09:08 I say “1 in 110 trillion” when I meant to say “1 in 110 billion”. The number on the screen is correct, it was just a verbal slip-up.
- At 25:27 I showed the 118 craps record as “1 in 1.2 × 10^9” when it should be “1 in 2.2 × 10^9”. The voiceover says the correct number.
- I slip and “more likely” instead of “less likely” at 33:47 (I think I may have even been going for “more unlikely”). But everything in the screen is correct.
- Let me know if you spot any more mistakes!

Thanks to my Patreon supporters who mean I can spend [[REDACTED]] hours filming myself trying to achieve improbably things. If you support me, you can get access to all [[REDACTED]] hours of bonus footage from this episode.

https://www.patreon.com/standupmaths

As always: thanks to Jane Street who support my channel. They're amazing. And I believe they have no opinion on Dream.
https://www.janestreet.com/

Endless filming by Matt Parker
Editing by Alex Genn-Bash
Some graphics by Ben Sparks
Minecraft consultancy by Oliver Dunk
Music by Howard Carter
Design by Simon Wright and Adam Robinson

MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician
Website: http://standupmaths.com/
US book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/610964/humble-pi-by-matt-parker/
UK book: https://mathsgear.co.uk/collections/books/products/humble-pi-signed-paperback