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Stock futures edged lower ahead of Wednesday’s opening bell on Wall Street, indicating a slightly lower open on July’s first trading day, and ahead of a blitz of economic data.

Record-breaking surges in coronavirus infections are setting the tone for the start of third quarter, and the second half of the year. European bourses rose on Wednesday, as investors weighed positive economic data against surging U.S. cases, which are likely to delay the global recovery.

Nevertheless, stocks on Tuesday closed out a breathtaking second-quarter rally that took them to their best overall quarter since 1998, and best second quarter on record. During that time frame, the S&P 500 saw a near-20% run-up during the April through June period, while the Dow and Nasdaq rose about 17.5% and 30%, respectively.

The historic rally came as market participants eyed a swift infusion of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus to bolster the virus-stricken economy, and as states and cities across the country began easing their lockdown restrictions in the middle of the quarter.

On tap Wednesday are crucial reads on the U.S. labor market and manufacturing sector. ADP’s payrolls data showed that private employers added 2.37 million jobs in June, a reversal from May’s steep 3 million-plus losses but below market expectations of 2.95 million jobs in June. Separately, the ISM manufacturing index will likely show continued improvement in June.

Those figures come ahead of the more pivotal nonfarm payrolls report, which is forecast to show the battered U.S. economy created 3 million jobs last month — up from 2.5 million in May.

However, investor expectations are more tied to new surges in COVID-19 infections, which are walloping the Sun Belt states, prompting more states and cities to rollback reopening plans. Tuesday saw the world’s largest economy report its worst-ever number of new cases, 47,000, with public health officials warning it could soar to 100,000 daily.

That may put a definitive cap on a market that’s skyrocketed since plunging to multi-year lows in when lockdowns first began in March.

“We’ve seen a huge move in the second quarter, and to be fair, it’s been driven by a lot of positivity,” Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, told Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade on Tuesday.

Yet “the virus count is rising,” Essaye added. “That at a minimum is going to delay the economic reopening, and markets have to price that in a bit. And I think there is a bit more for it to turn sideways or further dip.”

As of Tuesday, Texas posted its worst day for new coronavirus infections and hospitalizations so far since the start of the pandemic, with the state seeing 6,975 positive tests for a total of 159,986. Cases in California rose by 6,367, its second-largest jump yet.

The inability to predict how and when the U.S. will wrest control of rising infections, along with uncertainty over corporate profits and the economy, has meant a lack of conviction among market participants as to where stocks are going in the second half.

According to a survey released earlier this week from market research firm DataTrek, market participants lack a consensus view on where the S&P 500 is heading. The distribution of responses among 341 respondents answering where they felt the S&P 500 was headed – from up over 10% from current levels, to down more than 10% from current levels – was near evenly split.

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8:15 a.m. ET: ADP data shows big jump in private payrolls in June
Private sector employers added a total of 2,369,000 jobs in the month ended in June, according to ADP’s National Employment Report. The data was a reversal from a steep loss of more than 3 million jobs in the prior month, and reflected broad strength across small, medium and large-sized businesses.

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