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UK
+ 134 = 459
10 deaths

PM
Real number higher
Worst public health crisis for a generation
There will be deaths
Temp 37.8 + or new continuous cough self-isolate for a week
No cruises for over 70s
No international school trips
Later household quarantine to come
Delay disease
Protect the vulnerable

Patrick
4 weeks behind Italy
5,000 - 10,000 infected now
Delay and lower peak
Not possible to stop people getting virus
5 days of mild viral illness followed by immunological reaction in a minority of cases
Schools may need to close for 13 – 16 weeks
Peak 10 – 14 weeks away

Chris
Contain phase finishes today, moving on to delay
Contain has reduced rate of seeding of the virus
Now in the delay phase
Wash hands
Continuous and new cough OR 37.8 stay at home for 7 days (25% reduction in peak)
Household isolation (50% lower peak)
To,
Protect vulnerable people
Reduce and delay peak
Virus max transmission around first symptoms then for a few days, not infectious after 7 days
Minor symptomatic people can be very infectious, ? how many
Minor symptoms do not call 111
No longer needed to identify every case, testing capacity moved to symptomatic people in hospital
Testing based on symptoms and severity, not travel history
Social distancing around the vulnerable later, not yet
Children do get infected
Top number is 80%
CFR 1% overall, higher in older, lower in younger ages