Pandemic, Global Update

The top 10 causes of death

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death

56.9 million deaths worldwide in 2016

54% were due to the top 10 causes

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Independent global health research organization

University of Washington School of Medicine

Rigorous and comparable measurement, world’s health problems, evaluates strategies

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

Global Review

Cases are remaining constant

250,000 per day since August

Approximately one infection in 10 has been detected globally to date

31, 483,001 = 314, 830, 010

Assuming 1,000,000 deaths

IFR = 0.32

Daily deaths are decline

Just over 5,000 a day in the last week

Making COVID-19 the sixth-leading cause of global mortality

Progress in Latin America except Argentina

Surging cases in Europe

Continued epidemic expansion in India

Expect

Decreasing vigilance of the public in many countries

Northern Hemisphere seasonality will lead to a major global surge in daily cases

Deaths increasing late November and December.

Projections

30,000 deaths a day in December

January 1, 2021, total deaths, 2,667,497

Fourth leading cause of death

Herd immunity strategy

Up to 70% of individuals can get infected in a situation of near-random mixing

Actual percentage probably less

No further government action when the winter surge begins in the Northern Hemisphere

Deaths by January 1, a total of 3,618,640.

Mask use can save more than 730,000 lives by January 1

43% of the deaths expected between now and the end of 2020

More on herd immunity

Multiple locations in Latin America are now at over 40%

Ecuador and Mexico City

Indicating percentages increase to at least these levels

With herd immunity at 40% cumulative infection

Highly optimistic

Less than one quarter through the epidemic on January 1

10.4 million deaths

With herd immunity at 50% cumulative infection

13.1 million deaths

Only if we end the pandemic everywhere can we end the pandemic anywhere.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus


Having flu and Covid-19 together

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/22/flu-and-covid-19-at-same-time-significantly-increases-risk-of-death#img-1

Prof Jonathan Van-Tam

Significantly increases risk of death

Double whammy

n = 58 people

UK, early phase of the pandemic.

Hospitalised

Tested for both viruses

Very ill

Coinfection, deaths, 43%

COVID only, deaths, 26.9%

If you do think you have either flu or Co Vi D stay at home and self-isolate

30, 000, 000 doses of flu vac

50-64 will be offered flu vaccination

Children 2 – 11

Essential workers