Probability Comparison: Coronavirus Trajectories

As the coronavirus spreads rapidly around the world, case growth trajectories have started to differ between countries. According to numbers by Johns Hopkins collected by the website Worldometers, case counts in the U.S. and Spain have been growing faster recently. Both countries recorded 100+ cases for the first time on March 2. In the case of the U.S., officials have said that ramped-up testing has caused known case numbers to balloon since Saturday.

Italy, where there are currently more than 80,000 cases and public life has shut down, hit 100 cases on February 23, eight days earlier than the U.S. and Spain. France and Germany hit 100 cases or more on February 29 and March 1, respectively. Case numbers in the two countries appear to grow slower, but again, different testing regimen might obscure real case numbers.

The UK, which has registered almost 12,000 cases to date, also appears to be on a flatter trajectory, even though time will tell if those numbers tell the whole story.

The countries' collective aim is to "flatten the curve" of infections. While South Korea was able to stabilize its outbreak at around 9,000 cases - due to widespread free testing (including the now-infamous drive-thru testing), quarantine measures and the harnessing of mobile technology for public information - China has stabilized theirs at around 80,000 cases. South Korea hit 100 cases on February 20 and managed to leave the steep upward trajectory around 14 days later. In the case of China, more than 100 cases were first recorded on January 20, and quarantine and testing measures succeeded in breaking the upwards trajectory by February 12 - around three and a half weeks later.

Get the latest information from the World Health Organization about COVID-19: https://www.who.int/emergencies/disea...

Note: for your safety please stay at home.

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